Is Marga Prohens of the Partido Popular destined to be the next president of the Balearics? | Teresa Ayuga

A week away from the elections and a poll by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies (IBES) indicates a potentially decisive move to the right. For the Balearic parliament, which has 59 seats, the poll points to the Partido Popular winning 23 (up seven from 2019) and Vox seven (up four), which would give a majority of 30.

Poll for the Balearic parliament election

Francina Armengol's PSOE, according to the poll, will lose two seats (down to seventeen). Of the two other parties that make up the current coalition government, Unidas Podemos will lose one (down to five) and Més per Mallorca will maintain their four seats. A total of 26 seats, there wouldn't be sufficient support from elsewhere - Més per Menorca, two, and Gent per Formentera, one - to push an Armengol investiture over the line.

The poll confirms that Ciudadanos, currently five seats, will be obliterated, while it is bad news for El Pi. They have three seats at present but look set to lose them all. A regionalist party of the centre, there has been much talk of El Pi being the kingmakers (one way or the other), but the poll suggests that this will not be the case.

A separate poll by the Fundació Gadeso, published on Saturday, gave a probable result of PP 22 and Vox 6, with PSOE 18 (including the Formentera seat), Més per Mallorca four and Unidas Podemos four. This poll suggested three for Més per Menorca and two for El Pi.

The IBES poll also indicates a win for the right at the Council of Mallorca, which has a total of 33 councillors. The PP with eleven and Vox with six would form a majority.

While the IBES figures stack up for the parties on the right, there would still need to be agreement on terms for government between the PP and Vox.